Xi Jinping skips BRICS business forum speech 2023: What does mean for China and the world?

The BRICS summit, which gathers the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, is a key platform for cooperation and dialogue among the major emerging economies. The summit also features a business forum, where the leaders are supposed to deliver speeches and interact with the business community.

However, in a surprising move, Chinese leader Xi Jinping did not attend the business forum on Tuesday, August 23, 2023. Instead, he sent his commerce minister Wang Wentao to read out his prepared statement. The statement criticized the US for its hegemonic behavior and warned against a new cold war.

Why Xi Jinping skips BRICS business forum speech?

Why did Xi skip the event? What does it mean for China’s relations with the other BRICS countries and the world? In this article, we will analyze some possible reasons and implications of Xi’s absence.

Reason 1: Health issues

One possible reason for Xi’s no-show is that he had some health issues that prevented him from attending the event. This could be a minor illness, such as a cold or a headache, or a more serious condition, such as a heart problem or a stroke.

This reason is plausible because Xi is 70 years old and has been under tremendous pressure as China’s paramount leader. He has been facing multiple challenges at home and abroad, such as the Covid-19 pandemic, the economic slowdown, the debt crisis, the Taiwan issue, the Xinjiang issue, the Hong Kong issue, the US-China rivalry, and the internal power struggle within the Communist Party.

However, this reason is also unlikely because Xi has not shown any signs of poor health in public. He has maintained a busy schedule of domestic and foreign activities, such as visiting Tibet in July 2023 and attending the opening ceremony of the Tokyo Olympics in August 2023. He also appeared at other events during his state visit to South Africa, such as meeting with President Cyril Ramaphosa on Tuesday morning and attending a dinner with other BRICS leaders on Tuesday evening.

Moreover, if Xi had any health issues, it would be very difficult for Beijing to conceal them from the public. The Chinese government is notorious for its lack of transparency and accountability, but it also knows that any rumors or speculation about Xi’s health could have serious consequences for its legitimacy and stability. Therefore, it would try to reassure the public and the world that Xi is in good shape and in control of the situation.

Reason 2: Political issues

Another possible reason for Xi’s absence is that he had some political issues that required his attention. This could be an urgent matter related to China’s domestic or foreign affairs, such as a security threat, a diplomatic crisis, or a policy decision.

This reason is plausible because Xi is not only China’s president but also its general secretary of the Communist Party and its commander-in-chief of the military. He has centralized power and authority in his hands and has to deal with various issues on a daily basis. He also faces some major challenges ahead of him, such as preparing for the 20th Party Congress in 2023, where he is expected to secure his third term in office and appoint his successors.

However, this reason is also unlikely because Xi has a large and capable team of advisers and officials who can handle most of the issues without his direct involvement. He also has a well-established system of communication and coordination with other leaders and institutions within China and abroad. He can delegate tasks and responsibilities to others while still maintaining his oversight and guidance.

Moreover, if Xi had any political issues that pulled him away from the event, it would be very unusual for Beijing to not provide any explanation or justification for his absence. The Chinese government is well aware of the importance and significance of the BRICS summit and its business forum. It would not want to offend or alienate its partners or damage its reputation by skipping such a high-profile event without a good reason.

Reason 3: Strategic issues

A third possible reason for Xi’s absence is that he had some strategic issues that influenced his decision. This could be a deliberate choice by Xi to send a message or signal to his counterparts or rivals, such as expressing his dissatisfaction or displeasure with some aspects of the BRICS cooperation or demonstrating his confidence or defiance in face of the US pressure.

This reason is plausible because Xi is a shrewd and calculating leader who knows how to use diplomacy and symbolism to advance his interests and agenda. He has been pursuing an assertive and ambitious foreign policy that aims to enhance China’s global influence and leadership while challenging the US-led international order. He has also been promoting an alternative vision of development and governance that emphasizes sovereignty, non-interference, mutual benefit, and win-win cooperation.

However, this reason is also unlikely because Xi also understands the value and necessity of multilateralism and partnership. He has been advocating for building a community of shared future for mankind and strengthening cooperation among developing countries. He has been supporting the BRICS mechanism as an important platform for dialogue and coordination among the major emerging economies. He has also been seeking to improve relations with other BRICS countries, especially India, after the border clash in 2020.

Moreover, if Xi had any strategic issues that motivated him to skip the event, it would be very risky and counterproductive for him to do so. The BRICS summit and its business forum are not only opportunities for cooperation and dialogue but also for building trust and confidence among the leaders and the people. By not attending the event, Xi would miss the chance to showcase China’s achievements and contributions, address the concerns and expectations of his partners, and shape the agenda and outcomes of the summit.

Implications

In conclusion, there is no definitive answer to why Xi Jinping skipped the BRICS business forum speech. There are several possible reasons, each with its own merits and drawbacks. The most likely reason is a combination of factors that influenced Xi’s decision, such as health, political, and strategic issues.

Whatever the reason, Xi’s absence has raised questions and speculations about his status and intentions. It has also created challenges and uncertainties for China’s relations with the other BRICS countries and the world. It remains to be seen how Xi will explain his absence and how he will follow up on the BRICS cooperation in the future.

Some of the possible implications of Xi’s absence are:

• It could damage China’s image and credibility as a reliable and responsible partner in the BRICS mechanism. It could also undermine China’s efforts to promote its leadership and vision in the global arena.
• It could create doubts and suspicions among the other BRICS countries about China’s commitment and sincerity in the BRICS cooperation. It could also weaken the trust and confidence among the leaders and the people.
• It could provide an opportunity for the other BRICS countries to enhance their cooperation and coordination without China’s dominance or interference. It could also allow them to explore other partnerships and initiatives with other countries or regions.
• It could trigger a backlash from the US and its allies, who may see Xi’s absence as a sign of weakness or vulnerability. They may also use it as an excuse to increase their pressure or sanctions on China.
• It could affect China’s domestic politics and stability, especially if Xi’s absence is related to his health or power struggle. It could also expose China’s lack of transparency and accountability.

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Conclusion

Xi Jinping’s absence from the BRICS business forum speech was a surprising and unprecedented move that has generated much attention and speculation. There are various possible reasons for his no-show, but none of them can be confirmed or verified. The implications of his absence are also uncertain and complex, depending on how he will explain his absence and how he will follow up on the BRICS cooperation in the future.

Thank You

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References: CNN